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World Cup expansion has taken the edge off many South American qualifiers. With 14 of 18 rounds played, all the big boys seem to be safe. Argentina clinched qualification Tuesday. Brazil and others could follow in June.

But their places at the 2026 party aren’t quite locked up. And below them, two nations who’ve never won a men’s World Cup game, Venezuela and Bolivia, are fighting for a chance to make history.

CONMEBOL World Cup berths: 6 (plus 1 intercontinental playoff berth)

World Cup qualifying format: Simple. Ten teams, in a single table, play one another home and away. The top six qualify for the World Cup. Seventh place earns a journey to the intercontinental playoff.

Standings ’ Schedule and results

South America 2026 World Cup qualifying bubble

Qualified: ArgentinaConfident: Uruguay, Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador, ParaguayBubble: Venezuela, BoliviaLong shots: Chile, PeruEliminated: None

Winners, losers of the March qualifiers in South America

Winner: Paraguay — What a window for La Albirroja! Paraguay took four points, including one on the road in Colombia, and leapt into fifth place. Now, only a calamitous closing stretch — and an unforeseeable charge from Bolivia or Venezuela — could deny Paraguay a place in 2026.

Loser: Colombia — They’ll probably still qualify. But a heartbreaking loss in Brazil — to a 99th-minute Vinicius Jr. winner — and a blown lead at home to Paraguay have left Los Cafeteros only five points clear of the intercontinental playoff spot.

Winner: Venezuela — A tight, tense 1-0 win over Peru was enough to lift La Vinotinto into seventh place. If they beat Bolivia on Matchday 15 at home — which they’ll be favored to do — they’ll have a four-point cushion.